A2L replacement pricing: quoting through the transition without eating the increase

A2L replacement pricing has a timing problem, not just a cost problem. The cost side is known: the big equipment makers told investors that R-454B units list for roughly 10% more than the R-410A units they replace, and then layered general price increases on top. The timing side is what quietly eats margin. A replacement quote written in March, signed in May and installed in June can span two supplier increases. If your quote said "valid 60 days" and your price book was last updated at New Year's, the increase comes out of your pocket.

This post is about the quote, not the code. For what A2L means, the EPA timeline and the install checklist, read our A2L refrigerants guide. Here we'll cover what actually happened to prices, where the increase hides inside a quote, the math of a price hold, and how to present R-410A and A2L options so the customer chooses with eyes open.

What actually happened to equipment prices

Start with what the manufacturers said themselves, on earnings calls and in filings, rather than what a sales rep said at the counter.

Carrier's CEO put it plainly on the February 2025 call: the company was pricing an R-454B unit about 10% higher than the R-410A unit in the same category¹. Lennox's CFO described starting 2025 with a 10% increase for mix on R-454B products, followed by two more price increases, one of them a tariff surcharge². Trane's CFO told an investor conference the refrigerant change was more of a high-single-digit price increase, because of the leak sensors and higher cost, on 60% to 70% of the portfolio³.

It didn't stop in 2025. On Lennox's July 2026 call, management said favorable mix and pricing added 3% to revenue even as unit volume fell 12%, and that higher inflation was being offset by pricing actions⁴. Trade press tracked a fresh round of manufacturer increases taking effect in August 2026, including Goodman and Amana at up to 7%⁵.

The government's numbers show the same climb. The Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index for unitary air conditioners (excluding heat pumps) tells the story of a market that went flat during the 2024 pre-buy and then stepped up again:

From January 2024 to January 2025 the index barely moved (up about 0.4%), the year contractors and distributors bought ahead on R-410A. From January to July 2026 it rose about 8%⁶. Since January 2020 it's up about 57%.

The refrigerant was its own shock

R-454B itself was hard to get for part of 2025. Trade press reported cylinder lead times stretching to ten weeks in March 2025, with one supply house paying more than double its usual price from an alternate source⁷, and Honeywell applied a 42% surcharge to R-454B orders from mid-February 2025⁸. By July 2026, Lennox's CEO said channel confidence hurt by the canister shortage had returned fully⁴. That's a reminder that a single line on the quote, the refrigerant, can move far more than the equipment does.

1. 2024

   R-410A pre-buy

   Carrier and Lennox both described customers pulling R-410A purchases forward into 2024 ahead of the January 2025 change.

2. Jan 1, 2025

   700 GWP limit takes effect

   New split systems must use refrigerants at or below 700 GWP unless all components were made or imported earlier. A2L units arrive at roughly 10% higher list prices.

3. Feb to Mar 2025

   R-454B squeeze

   Honeywell announces a 42% surcharge on R-454B orders; cylinder lead times reach as long as ten weeks.

4. 2025

   Stacked increases

   Manufacturers follow the A2L step with general and tariff-related price actions.

5. May 26, 2026

   EPA reconsideration rule

   Pre-2025 R-410A inventory can be installed until it runs out.

6. Jun 8, 2026

   Tariff relief (trade press)

   Section 232 tariff on residential AC and heat pump equipment reported cut from 25% to 15%.

7. Aug 2026

   Another round

   Manufacturers including Goodman and Amana announce increases of up to 7%.

Not every move was up. Trade press reported that the Section 232 tariff on residential AC and heat pump equipment was cut from 25% to 15% on June 8, 2026⁹. Whether that shows up in your cost depends on where your brands are built and on your distributor, which is one more reason to price from current quotes rather than headlines.

Where the increase hides inside a replacement quote

When owners say "A2L costs more," they usually mean the equipment. But in practice the margin leak on a replacement is spread across five or six lines, and the equipment line is the one people remember to update.

The labor line is where most shops lose quietly. If your flat-rate replacement still assumes the install hours your crews ran on R-410A in 2023, every job carries the learning curve for free. Pull actual clock hours from the last ten A2L jobs and price from those. The rebuild formula in the A2L guide and the selling-rate math in how to price HVAC jobs do the rest.

The math of a price hold

Every quote with an expiry date is a promise: "for the next N days, you can buy this at this price, no matter what my supplier does." The customer gets that for free. You pay for it whenever a supplier increase lands inside the window.

A worked example. Every number below is an assumption; replace it with yours.

• Your main supplier has raised equipment prices about three times a year lately.
• Each increase averages 6%.
• Equipment is 45% of a $14,000 replacement.

If increases arrive at random through the year, the chance one lands inside a hold of N days is roughly 3 × N ÷ 365.

Worked example, not industry data: 3 increases a year averaging 6%, equipment at 45% of a $14,000 quote.

On a single quote, a 30-day hold costs about $93 on average. Annoying, not dangerous. But that average hides the part that matters.

The exposure that sinks a month: correlated quotes

Supplier increases don't hit one quote. They hit every open quote at once. Say you have 40 open replacement quotes averaging $14,000 when a 6% equipment increase lands, and they all close at the quoted price over the next few weeks. That's 40 × $378, about $15,000 of margin gone in one letter from your distributor.

That's why the length of your hold should follow how often your suppliers move, not tradition. The Air Conditioning Contractors of America's blog advised contractors in October 2025 to shorten quote validity from the traditional 30 to 60 days, because distributors can't guarantee pricing will hold, so contractors can't either¹⁰.

Setting a hold you can afford

1. 1

   Count last year's increases

   From your distributor's letters, count how many equipment price changes you had and their average size. That's your input for the table above.

2. 2

   Pick a hold that matches

   If increases come two or three times a year, 14 to 30 days is defensible. If they come quarterly or faster, 14 days with a clear re-quote rule.

3. 3

   Write the re-quote rule on the quote

   Something like: 'Price valid for 14 days. After that, equipment is re-priced at our current cost; labor and other items stay as quoted.' Customers accept a rule they can read.

4. 4

   Ask your distributor for protection

   Some distributors will hold a price on a specific job if you place the order. Ask. Don't assume.

5. 5

   Track your open-quote exposure

   Total value of open replacement quotes with the equipment share. When a price letter arrives, you'll know exactly what's at risk.

When an increase is announced before its effective date, use the gap. Call every open replacement quote and say so, plainly: "Our supplier's price goes up on the 1st. If you'd like the current price, we'd need to order by the 25th." That's not a pressure tactic if it's true. It's information the customer would want.

The repair-or-replace line moved too

Higher replacement prices change the other conversation your techs have every day: fix the old system or replace it. When a replacement costs noticeably more than it did two years ago, more customers will choose a repair they'd have skipped before. That isn't a lost sale. It's a different sale, and it should be priced and presented as carefully as the replacement.

Two things to put in front of the customer on any R-410A system with a significant leak:

• The repair price today, and what the next refrigerant top-up could cost. R-410A supply shrinks as the HFC cap steps down, so a leak that needs recharging every year gets more expensive to live with. Our A2L guide has the phasedown schedule.
• The replacement price, with a validity date. A customer who repairs now and replaces in two years will pay that year's price, not today's. Say so without drama.

A simple rule many owners use: if the repair costs more than a set share of the replacement on a system past a set age, present both. Keep that rule written down and the same for every tech, so the customer hears a policy, not a pitch. Then let them pick.

Presenting R-410A and A2L options honestly

Since EPA's May 2026 reconsideration rule, R-410A split systems whose components were made or imported before January 1, 2025 can be installed until that inventory runs out¹¹. So for a while, some shops can offer both. That's a genuine choice for the customer, and it belongs on the estimate, not in the tech's head.

A good-better-best estimate handles this without a lecture. Put the refrigerant on each option card in plain words. Our post on good, better, best estimates covers the layout. And when the customer asks about monthly payments, our post on showing monthly payments honestly covers what you can say.

No scare talk about bans, and no pretending the older system is a bargain with no catch. Customers who feel informed rather than sold to tend to sign, and they tend to come back.

Keeping your price book current

Most of the margin lost in a transition like this isn't lost on the quote. It's lost in the price book, which was right in January and wrong by April. A few habits:

In TradesWork, proposal templates are priced from your published price book at the moment a tech uses them, so a price you update this morning is the price on this afternoon's estimates, and rebates carry end dates so expired ones don't linger. TradesWork doesn't pull live distributor pricing, so keeping equipment cost current is still your monthly job.

The transition will settle. Prices won't go back down. The shops that come out of it with healthy margins will be the ones that treated each quote as a short-lived promise and repriced on a schedule, not the ones that guessed right on a single increase.